Linguagem: EnglishFrenchGermanItalianPortugueseRussianSpanish

Economia mundial perde mais de US$ 4 trilhões. Só o turismo US$ 2,4 trilhões.

 

19-07-2021 10:17:26 (138 acessos)
Pode ser maior do que estavam projetando, o impacto negativo da pandemia do coronavírus, sobre a economia mundial. Cálculo dos técnicos da UNCTAD (Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Comércio e Desenvolvimento) mostram qu8e os prejuízos serão maiores que US$ 4 trilhões, somando-se resultados de 2020 e do primeiro semestre de 2021. Consideração é feita sobre todos os setores, mas se concentrada na área de turismo, o prejuízo soma muito mais que US$ 2,4 trilhões em 2020.

Perderam mais os países em desenvolvimento, consideram os estudios da unwto (Organização Mundial do Turismo). Desde o início dos problemas causados pela pandemia, os profissionais estão realizando planos para a retomada na área de turismo e na economia como um todo. 

Na Europa entrou emn atividade o Banco Europeu para Reconstrução. Mas no segmento sanitário, a Organbização entrou num ritmo acentuado de visitações e execuções de atividades de prevenção. Por isso que a maioria dos países ja´está com fronteiras abertas desde os primeiros meses de 2021. 

Uma notícia preocupante é que as perdas ao turismo no ano passado, podem chegar ao mesmo número em 2021. É que essa parte da economia é abrangente e se reflete em todosd os segmentos. Daí a ênfase para que a im,unização com vacinas, seja rápida e eficiente. Assim muitos países já chegam à plenitude da população, como é o caso do Reino Unido, França, Alemanha, Suiça e EUA. 

Zurab Pololikashvili, diretor-geral da UNWTO, avalia que a vacinação é a cvhave para a retomada, bem como as medidas preventivas de uso de máscaras e higienização do corpo. Avalia que é primordial mitigar os efeitos sociais malkéficos da infecção e adotar decisões estratégicas para uma retomada segura das atividades

Apesar dos esforços, as indicações não são otimistas. Para reconquistar os níveis de 2019, só estratégicas medidas irão consegui9r chegar àqueles índices e ao final de 2023.

Projeções mostram dificuldades

But experts don’t expect a return to pre-COVID-19 international tourist arrival levels until 2023 or later, according to UNWTO. The main barriers are travel restrictions, slow containment of the virus, low traveller confidence and a poor economic environment.

Up to $1.8 trillion loss expected in 2021 A rebound in international tourism is expected in the second half of this year, but the UNCTAD report still shows a loss of between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion in 2021, compared with 2019 levels.

The results are based on simulations that capture the effects of international tourism reduction only, not policies such as economic stimulus programmes that may soften the pandemic’s impact on the sector. The report assesses the economic effects of three possible scenarios – all reflecting reductions in international arrivals – in the tourism sector in 2021.

The first one, projected by UNWTO, reflects a reduction of 75% in international tourist arrivals – the most pessimistic forecast – based on the tourist reductions observed in 2020. In this scenario, a drop in global tourist receipts of $948 billion causes a loss in real GDP of $2.4 trillion, a two-and-a-half-fold increase.

This ratio varies greatly across countries, from onefold to threefold or fourfold. This is a multiplier and depends on the backward linkages in the tourism sector, including the unemployment of unskilled labour, according to the report. For example, international tourism contributes about 5% of the GDP in Turkey and the country suffered a 69% fall in international tourists in 2020.

The country’s fall in tourism demand is estimated at $33 billion and this leads to losses in closely linked sectors such as food, beverages, retail trade, communications and transport.

Turkey’s total fall in output is $93 billion, about three times the initial shock. The decline in tourism alone contributes to a real GDP loss of about 9%. This decline in reality was partly offset by fiscal measures to stimulate the economy.

The second scenario reflects a 63% reduction in international tourist arrivals, a less pessimistic forecast by UNWTO. And the third scenario, formulated by UNCTAD, considers varying rates of domestic and regional tourism in 2021. It assumes a 75% reduction of tourism in countries with low vaccination rates, and a 37% reduction in countries with relatively high vaccination rates, mostly developed countries and some smaller economies.

Job losses across countries

According to the report, the reduction in tourism causes a 5.5% rise in unemployment of unskilled labour on average, with a high variance of 0% to 15%, depending on the importance of tourism for the economy.

Labour accounts for around 30% of tourist services’ expenditure in both developed and developing economies. Entry barriers in the sector, which employs many women and young employees, are relatively low.

Losses worse than previously expected In July last year, UNCTAD estimated that a four- to 12-month standstill in international tourism would cost the global economy between $1.2 trillion and $3.3 trillion, including indirect costs.

But the losses are worse than previously expected, as even the worst-case scenario UNCTAD projected last year has turned out to be optimistic, with international travel still low more than 15 months after the pandemic started. According to UNWTO, international tourist arrivals declined by about 1 billion or 73% between January and December 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer points to a decline of 88%.

Developing countries have borne the biggest brunt of the pandemic’s impact on tourism. They suffered the largest reductions in tourist arrivals in 2020, estimated at between 60% and 80%. The most-affected regions are North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Oceania, North Africa and South Asia, while the least-affected ones are North America, Western Europe and the Caribbean

 

Fonte: UNWTO e UNCTAD
 

 Não há Comentários para esta notícia

 

Aviso: Todo e qualquer comentário publicado na Internet através do Noticiario, não reflete a opinião deste Portal.

Deixe um comentário

A8qQv